The New York Mets host the Chicago White Sox on May 26, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Find my MLB betting preview and White Sox vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My White Sox vs Mets Prediction
- White Sox vs Mets picks: F5 Under 4.5 (-105, Play to -120)
My White Sox vs Mets best bet is F5 Under 4.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
White Sox vs Mets Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -135 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +240 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 +110 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -295 |
White Sox vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Adrian Houser (CHW) | Stat | RHP Clay Holmes (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 5-3 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 0.00/3.76 | ERA /xERA | 3.13/3.61 |
| 3.92/5.11 | FIP / xFIP | 3.60/3.53 |
| 0.83 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| -4.8% | K-BB% | 14.5% |
| 50.0% | GB% | 53.0% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 108 | Location+ | 103 |
Doug Ziefel’s White Sox vs Mets Preview
Chicago White Sox Betting Preview: Bad Matchup Against Holmes
While the White Sox were historically bad last season and are 19 games under .500 coming into this matchup, they showed some signs of life over the weekend, taking a series from the Texas Rangers.
However, they're now tasked with a challenge, as they travel to take on the Mets at an atypical Monday time. The White Sox haven't thrived on the road, to say the least, as they're 5-21 away from their home park this season.
The circumstances are working against them, but so is the matchup. They'll have to contend with Clay Holmes, who's been solid in his first season as a starting pitcher.
Holmes sports a 3.13 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with few indicators of regression. He's elite at generating ground balls, a recipe for success against the White Sox, as they tend not to square up pitches.
Chicago sports the lowest wOBA in baseball, the second-lowest WOBACON and the third-highest pop-up rate.
If Holmes continues to pitch to contact, the White Sox have shown they're adept at getting themselves out.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Time for Their Bats to Wake Up
On the flip side of this matchup, the Mets may have finally begun to build some momentum. They come fresh off a series victory against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Their big wins against L.A. are a testament to how good they are at home, as they now sport a 19-6 record at Citi Field.
However, they have the toughest turnaround of any team on the slate; this early start comes after Sunday Night Baseball yesterday.
While the day game after a night game may impact the Mets' bats early, there's no hiding that this lineup is due to break out in a big way. The Mets have the second-best hard-hit rate in the majors but haven't seen the expected results.
New York's team batting average is just .245, but its contact metrics suggest major positive regression, with its xBA sitting at .268.
Tough turnaround or not, it'll be a difficult assignment for Adrian Houser, who's making his second start of the season.
White Sox vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Mets are heavy favorites in this matchup, and rightfully so; they're trending up while playing at home against one of the worst teams in baseball.
However, even if this game is as one-sided as the oddsmakers' price portrays, there's value in the first five total.
I talked about how this Monday slate is odd, as Memorial Day has produced day games on a day when there are typically none.
With the Mets returning to the park early and the White Sox having to travel, we may see both lineups get off to slow starts.
That, along with Chicago's almost no offensive threat, leads me to love the first five under this afternoon.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5
